基于模糊层次分析方法的城镇火灾风险评价——以山西夏县瑶峰镇为例

Assessment of town-level fire risks based on the fuzzy hierarchial analysis process—a case study sample via Yaofeng Town, Xiaxian County,Shanxi

为了提高山西夏县瑶峰镇抗御火灾的能力,对瑶峰镇开展了城镇火灾区域风险评价。首先调研瑶峰镇现有防火情况,总结该镇火灾发生的原因、规律和特点。其次应用专家打分法和模糊层次综合评价法得到相对状态特征值H≈2,表明瑶峰镇火灾风险等级介于较危险和一般状态之间。最后根据瑶峰镇火灾风险影响因素的权重值确定了采取消防措施的重点方向。结果表明,影响因素的权重由大到小为火灾危险程度、消防实力水平、社会管理状态、城市特征。因此,瑶峰镇政府在加强消防建设、提升城镇火灾抵御能力的工作上要首先考虑火灾危险程度和消防实力水平这2个因素。不同种类消防重点单位的火灾风险权重由大到小为易燃易爆场所、商场和集贸市场、公共娱乐场所、学校和幼儿园、宾馆饭店、重要机关、高层住宅建筑。因此,瑶峰镇政府应着重加强易燃易爆场所、商场、集贸市场和公共娱乐场所的消防基础设施建设和监督管理。

In this paper, we are going to present our sample study results on the townlevel fire risks likeliness assessment based on the fuzzy hierarchical analysis process theory. For the said purpose, we have chosen Yaofeng Town, Xiaxian County, Shanxi, as a case sam ple. To achieve our research goal, we have worked out the reasons, rules and characteristics of such fire disasters likely to occur in our investigation of the local fire accident prevention and fighting. And, secondly, we have made an exploration of the relative characteristic feature H ~ 2 with the expert evaluation method an~ the fuzzy hierar chical analysis method fit for ranking the local fire risks susceptibility as an intermediate level between the moderate safety and fire hazards. And, last of all, we have determined and confirmed the key aspects of the fire protection measures in answering to the prevention need corresponding to the weight levels as well as the different fire riskcausing factors. The fuzzy hierarchical analysis results we have gained indicate that all the key fire risk probability degrees can be ranked in a descending order as follows： the fire dangers degree 〉 the fire fighting power 〉 the social management state 〉 the local town＇s material properties, so the fire dangers degree and the fire fighting power should firstly be taken into careful consideration in planning and conducting urban constructions. In addition, the fire risk assess ment degree order for the main business trade can be shown as fol lows the businesses that are prone to inflammation and explosive bursting 〉 shopping malls and markets 〉 entertainment public places 〉 schools and kindergartens 〉 hotels and restaurants 〉 ad ministrative organizations and institutions 〉 highrise residential buildings. All the above said index values can help the town govern ment offices to plan their responsibilities and charges so as to strengthen their supervision and management activities of the corre sponding firefighting and prevention work. By this way, it can be predicted that the fire risk incidence probability of the town is surely to get reduced, and economy loss is reduced.