施工进度BIM可靠性预测方法

Analysis on Predictive Methods of BIM Based on Construction Schedule Reliability

为实现BIM技术预测功能,采用可靠性理论、概率方法理论,考虑施工过程及进度影响因素的不确定性,分析了目标进度和预测进度的复杂关系,建立了施工进度随机预测模型。特别考虑了施工过程单因素影响条件,研究了单因素进度预测确定性和随机模型,以及基于单因素影响的预测进度可靠性分析方法。同时,探讨了基于BIM管理平台的施工进度可靠性预测集成管理方法。工程实例表明,所提方法对控制施工进度具有明显效果。

In order to realize the predictive function of BIM technology, the reliability theory and theoretical probability method are utilized to judge the uncertainty which exists in the process of construction. Meanwhile, the complicated relationship between construction schedule and prediction model is analyze, the random prediction model for construction schedule is established as well. Particularly, the influencing condition about a single factor in the process of construction is taken into consideration. Determinate model and random model for construction time as well as reliability analysis method for the construction time prediction which is based on a single influencing factor are studied . At the same time, The integrated management method of reliability prediction about construction schedule which is on basis of BIM management platform is discussed. The case study shows that the proposed method has delivered dramatic results to the control of construction schedule.