中国化工产业佩尔兹曼效应实证研究

Analysis of Performance for China Chemical Investment's Peltzman Effect

近年来中国化工产业事故频发,由此引发的安全、健康和环境问题日益突出。为了探讨化工事故产生的深层原因,建立了VECM对中国化工产业的佩尔兹曼效应进行检验。结果表明,短期看中国化工安全设施加强并没有显著提高化工安全水平的原因在于存在佩尔兹曼效应;长期看工人逆向选择的抵消效应趋于消失;化工工人安全意识薄弱是导致短期内安全设施投资加大、事故率不降反升的主要原因之一。该结论为完善化工安全规制政策提供了理论支撑。

In recent years, China had so many chemical industrial accidents that safe, healthy and environmental problems were more prominent. In order to explore the underlying causes of chemical accidents, empirically analyzed the existence of the Peltzman effect using time series data by VECM. The empirical results indicated that for China chemical industry, in the short term, strengthening investment in safety facilities fails to improve the safety level significantly because the Pehzman effect was existed. Over the long term, the offsetting behavior tended to disappear. Poor safety awareness among workers was one of the causes of accident incidences. The conclusions provided theoretical support for China perfecting chemical industry safety regulation.