建设项目突发事故应急系统演化模型研究

Evolution Model of Emergency Response System for Construction Project

建设项目应急系统是一个非线性的复杂系统。建设项目突发事故的演化发展过程是一个持续的过程,非线性微分方程是能够描述建设项目突发事故应急演化的数学模型。通过对应急系统Logistic模型进行改进,考虑到应急系统发展过程中必然会受到系统外部的影响,结合项目突发事故的海因里希法则原理,提出了基于T-S方程的应急系统演化模型,论证了应急系统在不同阶段的规律与特点。针对应急系统所处的不同发展阶段,提出了相应的提高应急能力的办法。

An emergency system evolution model has been established based on the theory of complex systems,and the logistic model of the emergency system has been improved. It takes into account of the fact that the emergency system will certainly be the impact of external factors in the development of the system,as well as the project emergencies due to unforeseen Heinrich rules,and the equation has been established based on the T-S model of the evolution of the emergency system. The model can reflect the objective contingency construction projects of the phenomenon of system evolution,which demonstrates the emergency system in the different stages and characteristics of the law. We can take the appropriate way to improve emergency response capabilities by emergency response system for the different stages of development.