基于多变量灰色模型的R&D投入目标强度预测研究

Study on Forecasting of our Country's R&D Input Target Intensity on base of the Multi-variable Grey Model

R&D投入是测度一个国家或地区R&D活动规模、评价其科技创新和竞争能力的重要指标。采用多变量灰色模型(Multi-variable grey model)—MGM(1,n)对我国未来R&D投入目标强度进行预测,并提出确保目标强度实现的相关对策措施,为我国未来科技管理提供理论依据和实证支持。

R＆D expenditure is an important index to evaluate R＆D scale and innovation ability. Some R＆D activities targets were not achieved successfully in the l lth Five-Year-Plan Period. During the 12th Five- Year-Plan Period,it＇s important to distribute and use R＆D capital rationally in the context of shortage in S＆T source. The paper evaluates the performance of our country＇s R＆D input on base of SEA model from 2002 to 2008. Study shows that our country＇s R＆D efficiency is raising,but it＇s very evident in different areas, and the promoting space of R＆D efficiency is large. At the same time, there＇s not clear promoting effect that the government R＆D finance and human capital affect R＆D efficiency. With improving the R＆D efficiency, we should put emphasis on the R＆D input ways and means, ensuring and controlling system, R＆D cooperation and SO on.