原油凝点波动大时管道流动保障分析方法

A method for pipeline flow assurance analysis of crude oil with larger fluctuation of gel point

根据原油凝点与油温或地温的关系分析管道的流动保障安全性是常用方法，然而，在实际管道输送中，原油凝点会有一定波动，但现行SY／T5536-2004《原油管道运行规程》没有明确凝点的取值方法，故当凝点波动幅度较大时，难以直接采用该技术规范。为此，提出基于凝点的均值和标准差两个统计特征值，结合现行技术规范，综合分析凝点均值及“均值加1～3倍标准差”与油温或地温的关系，判断管道流动保障安全性的方法。针对管输原油凝点波动很大的某长输管道，分析了其常温输送的可行性，验证了该方法的实用性。（图1，表3，参10）

To compare the gel point of crude oil with the oil temperature or the ambient temperature is a common practice in the flow assurance assessment of crude oil pipelines. Actually, the gel point of the pumped crude oil definitely has some uncertainty, i.e. fluctuating in some extent. However, the current technical code of ＂The Operation Regulation of Crude Oil Pipeline＂ （SY/T 5536-2004） does not explicitly state how to take the gel point value, and consequently it is hard to be applied to the situation that the gel point has great uncertainty. To solve this problem, it is suggested that the mean and the standard deviation of the gel point be used, and compare the two statistical values, i.e. the mean and the value of the mean added by 1 to 3 times of the standard deviation, with the oil temperature or the ambient temperature in the flow assurance assessment using the current technical code. As an illustration of this method, the possibility of no-heating operation is assessed for a long-distance pipeline transporting crude oils whose gel point has great uncertainty. （1 Figure, 3 Tables, 10 References）