上海市外来人口长期居住意愿的实证研究

Research on Long Term Residence Tendency of the Floating Population in Shanghai District

基于2013年上海市中心城区外来人员的综合问卷调查数据,构建外来人口长期居住意愿的Ordered Probit模型,发现:上海外来人口的长期居住意愿受到居住证效应、时间效应、生活水平效应、社会保障效应等多因素影响,而年龄、性别、民族、户口等因素对上海市外来人口长期居住意愿并不显著。本实证研究的结论对于上海市改革居住证积分管理具有一定的指导意义,也为我国制定外来人口公共服务方面的政策提供了良好的借鉴。

Based on the survey data on floating population of shanghai in 2013, an ordered probit model is set up to identify the factors that affect their migratory intention. Findings suggest that, type of residence permit, length of residence, living standard, social insurance are the most important variables, while individual characteristics like age, gender, nation and Hukou status don＇t have statistically significant effect on floating population＇s residence tendency. The results have certain directive meaning toward score management of residence permit in Shanghai.