基于Markov模型的土地利用变化预测研究——以广东省顺德区为例

Markov Model-based Predictive Analysis of Land Use Research——A Case Study of Shunde in Guangdong Province

本文选取经济快速发展地区的中小城镇——广东省顺德区为例,利用RS和GIS手段获得了研究区2000和2010年土地利用的类型和面积,以马尔可夫模型方法预测了研究区2020年和2030年土地利用变化趋势并进行分析,预测发现到2030年顺德区建设用地规模将增加到316.14 km2,耕地面积减少到64.39 km2,林地面积为42.92km2,坑塘水面减少到了289.01 km2,城市的扩张占用了大量的耕地很可能会对区域土地利用的可持续性造成影响,因此,现阶段必须严格控制建设用地的规模,通过集约节约用地提高用地效益,控制中小城镇用地扩张规模,实现城镇用地扩张与经济发展的协调。

This article selects shunde district as an example, obtained land use type and the area in study area by means of remote sensing and GIS in 2000 and 2010, with markov model method predict and analyze land use change trend in the study area in 2020 and 2030, this prediction result shows that the scale of construction land will increase to 316.14 km2, cultivated land is reduced to 64.39 km2, forest land area is 42.92 km2, and pits or water is down to 289.01 km2 in Shunde by 2030. The expansion of the city to take up a large amount of cultivat- ed land is likely to affect the sustainability of regional land use, therefore, the present stage must strictly control the scale of construction land, improving intensive economical use of land through the land use efficiency, control the scale of land expansion of small and medium- sized towns and realize the coordination of urban land expansion and economic development.