基于变权-物元分析模型的老工业基地区域生态安全动态预警研究——以吉林省为例

Study on early-warning model based on variable weight-matter element analysis for ecological security in old industrial bases: a case study of Jilin Province

生态安全预警是生态安全研究的重要内容,对维护区域生态安全具有重要的意义。老工业基地区域生态安全预警研究具有一定的特殊性和典型性,选取吉林省为研究区,基于压力、状态、响应(P-S-R)和生态、环境、经济、社会(E-E-E-S)框架模型构建生态安全预警指标体系,运用变权-物元分析模型对1991—2011年吉林省区域生态安全的预警等级进行了测度,并结合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型对2015年、2020年区域生态安全态势进行预测预警。研究结果表明:(1)1991—2011年,吉林省生态安全总体水平呈逐步上升的趋势,区域生态安全预警等级从"巨警"上升为"轻警",指示灯由"红色预警"逐步变为"蓝色预警";(2)2015年,吉林省的生态安全预警等级属于"轻警",指示灯为"蓝色预警",到2020年,吉林省的生态安全预警等级属于"无警",指示灯为"绿色预警",但具有向"轻警"变化的态势;(3)制约吉林省生态安全水平提升的主要因素包括单位面积耕地化肥负荷量、城镇化、人均水资源量、GDP增长率、第一产业占GDP比重等,这些因素应是今后生态环境保护调控的重点,本研究为吉林省经济-生态-社会可持续发展提供参考。

At present, China is actively promoting the ecological civilization construction and the ecological security is an important part of ecological civilization construction. Early-warning is a key content of ecological security research, which can make an evaluation, prediction and alarm for the changes of the regional ecological environment quality and social economy coordinated development. It also has a significant meaning in maintain the regional ecological security. Early- warning of ecological security research for old industrial bases has a certain particularity and typicality. This paper selected Jilin Province as the study region; constructed an ecological security early-warning index system by employing the ＂Pressure-State-Response＂ （PSR） and ＂ Ecology-Environment-Economy-Society＂ （EEES） model. Then we used the variable weight and matter element analysis model to estimate the early-warning level of ecological security of Jilin Province from 1991 to 2011.At last the grey system GM （ 1,1 ） model was used to predict the regional ecological security trend of JilinProvince in 2015 and 2020. The results indicated that： （1） The overall level of ecological security showed an upward trend in Jilin Province in 1991--2011, the warning degree rose from ＂huge alarm＂ to ＂light alarm＂ and the indicator lamp turned from red lamp to blue lamp; （2） In 2015, the warning degree will be ＂light alarm＂ and the indicator lamp will be blue. In 2020, the warning degree of Jilin Province will be ＂no alarm＂ and the indicator lamp will be green. But it has the trend of turning into ＂light alarm＂ ; （ 3 ） The main factors that restrict the improvement of ecological security of Jilin Province include Consumption of chemical fertilizer per hectare cultivated land, Urbanization, Per capital water resources, GDP growth rate and Primary industry production per GDP, Which are the focus of ecological environment protection in the future. This study will provide a reference to achieve economy-ecology-society sustainable developing of Jilin Province. So, we may take some necessary measures to guide rationally consumption of chemical fertilizers; to improve agricultural production technique and adjust agricultural structure further; to follow a new path of industrialization and reduce the energy consumption; to change economic growth patterns and promote a energy-saving and emission reduction; to accelerate development of green economy and circular economy; to save water and promote water-saving technological in key industrial areas; to control water pollution in key basins, and at last to realize coordinated development between industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and ecological environment protection. The forewarning model of regional ecological security that used in this study combined variable weight theory with matter element analysis. It not only reflects the role of factors changing in the regional ecological security early-warning, meanwhile, it can analyze the alert-situation on the single factor and pay more attention on the adverse factors that affected the ecological security. It can also integrate the evaluation results of single factors estimate and alarm the ecological security of the whole region and realize the function of regional ecological security early-warning more preferable.