转型期中国经济波动的冲击传导机制解析——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的数值模拟分析

The Analysis of Chinese Economic Fluctuation Shock and Transmission Mechanism during Transition Period——The Numerical Simulation Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

在动态随机一般均衡分析框架下，构建了一个融入消费习惯冲击、投资边际效率冲击、政府支出冲击、技术冲击及资本窖藏机制的实际经济周期模型，在模型参数校准的基础上，利用1978~2010年的宏观经济数据，考察了理论模型对中国经济波动特征事实的拟合效果和方差分解效应。研究发现，引入四种冲击机制的理论模型能够较好地模拟中国经济波动特征，资本窖藏机制对各种冲击尤其是投资边际效率冲击具有传导和放大作用。方差分解表明，投资边际效率冲击可以解释53．79％的产出波动，技术冲击也能解释35．68％的产出波动，而消费习惯冲击和政府支出冲击对产出波动的解释力不足10％。脉冲响应分析显示，技术冲击对经济具有正向影响；政府支出冲击对投资和消费具有微弱的挤出效应，并主要体现在对私人投资的挤出上；消费习惯冲击对产出和消费均具有正向影响，其对投资虽然具有短期负向影响，但会逐渐转化为正向影响；投资边际效率冲击对投资和产出在短期内具有正向影响，但最终会转化为负向影响。因此，长期依靠投资拉动经济的增长模式不可持续，应及时调整经济结构，构建以科技创新和消费拉动为核心动力的新型经济增长方式。

Based on the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, we introduce the consumption habits shock, gov- ernment spending shock, investment marginal efficiency shock, technology shock and capital storage mechanism into the actual eco- nomic cycle motel. On the basis of this model, according to Chinese macroeconomic data during 1978-2010, we study how the theoretical model fit Chinese economic fluctuation characteristics and variance decomposition effect. The study finds that, theoretical model can fit the fluctuation characteristics of major macroeconomic variables, capital storage mechanism are useful for various shock, especially conduct and amplify the marginal efficiency of investment shock. The variance decomposition shows that, investment marginal efficiency shock can explain 53.79% of output fluctuation; technology shock effect also can explain 35.68% of output fluctuation, con-sumption habit shock and government expenditure shock can explain less than 10% of output fluctuation. Impulse response diagram shows, the technology shock has a positive impact on the economy; government expenditure shock has a weak crowding-out effect on investment and consumption, and mainly reflected in the extrusion of private investment; consumption habit shock has positive effects on output and consumption, although the investment has the short-term negative impact, gradually transformed into positive impact. Investment marginal efficiency shock has a short term positive impact on investment and output, but eventually into the negative effect. Therefore, relying on long-term investment to stimulate economic growth model is not sustainable, we should adjust economic structure timely and construct the scientific and technological innovation and upgrading of the consumption structure model of eco- nomic development as the core power.