跨越“中等收入陷阱”的消费率变化轨迹研究——基于东亚、拉美部分国家(地区)的启示

Study on the Consumption Ratio in the Process of Breaking Through “Middle Income Trap”——Based on the Experience of East Asia and Latin America

2013年我国人均GDP达到6 900美元,标志着我国已居于"上中等收入"国家行列,正面临"中等收入陷阱"的威胁。本文基于日本、韩国、巴西和阿根廷的发展历程,考察了"中等收入陷阱"区间下消费率的变化轨迹,认为成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的消费率特征是:消费率走势呈U型特征,由波动性变化演变为平稳性运行,并大致在人均GDP4 000美元形成"消费率拐点"。其中,收入因素对"消费率拐点"的培育与形成具有较大的制约作用。同时文章对比分析了低中等收入阶段我国消费率变化轨迹,认为我国在人均GDP4 283美元水平下形成"消费率拐点",但当前消费需求的充分释放仍面临较强的挑战,迫切需要相应的政策措施来强化"消费率拐点"的形成。

With the per capita GDP exceeded $6 ,900 in 2013 , China officially entered the ranks of “up-per-middle-income” economies , while facing the threat of “Middle Income Trap”.Based on the de-velopment experience from Japan , Korea, Brazil and Argentina , this paper study the process of consump-tion ratio in breaking through “Middle Income Trap”, which show the feature of “U”, evolving from dra-matic change to the stable running , and form the “Turning Point in Consumption” in the per capita GDP of almost $4000 .Also the paper make a comparative analysis on China ’ s consumption track in Low -middle-income stage, forming the “Turning Point in Consumption” in the per capita GDP of $4283, but it is a big challenge to release the consumption fully , and it’s necessary to take appropriate measures to strengthen the “Turning Point in Consumption”.