近61年来赣州降水量变化特征及趋势

Variation characteristics and trend analysis of precipitation in Ganzhou in recent 61 years

采用回归分析和滑动平均等方法,从年际变化和季节变化角度出发,选取平均降水量、降水频率、降水强度、极端降水事件及最大日降水量等指标,对赣州市1951年-2011年的降水变化特征及趋势进行了分析。研究表明,近61年来,赣州市多年平均降水为229.6mm;春夏两季为湿季,秋冬两季为干季;降水量、降水频率和极端降水事件呈缓慢下降的趋势,而降水强度和最大日降水量呈缓慢上升的趋势。

The variation characteristics and trend of precipitation in Ganzhou from 1951 to 2011 were analyzed using the methods of linear regression and moving average from the perspective of seasonal and interannual variations. Five indexes were used,in- cluding the average precipitation, rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, extreme precipitation events, and maximum daily precipitation. The results showed that the average annual rainfall in Ganzhou is 229.6 mm in recent 61 years;the spring and summer are the wet seasons while the autumn and winter are the dry seasons;and the precipitation, precipitation frequency, and extreme pre- cipitation events decrease slowly while the precipitation intensity and maximum daily precipitation increase slowly.