中国城乡居民养老制度可持续性的精算研究

Actuary Research of the Sustainability of the Domestic Pension Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents

围绕我国城乡居民养老保险体系可持续化问题,从中国实际出发,分层次、多角度的分析了当前我国的养老保险制度.首先,针对中国养老保险基金问题,基于当前养老保险体制,分别从三个层次入手,建立中国城乡居民养老保险基金收支模型;其次,基于养老制度的可持续性,建立了养老金缺口模型,并对养老金缺口的未来趋势进行了合理预测;最后,对所建立的模型进行了评价及推广.

This paper focused on the sustainability of China＇s urban and rural resident endowment insurance system and hierarchically, multi-angle analyzed the pension insurance system from the Chinese reality. Firstly, to explore the problem of pension insurance in China, separately from the three levels, this paper built the model of pension insurance balance for China＇s urban and rural residents based on the current pension insurance system; Secondly, this essay established pension gap model and forecasted the future trend of pension shortfall based on the sustainability of pension system; Finally, this paper evaluated and promoted the model.