基于云模型的地震区公路震害风险评估

Cloud Model-based Seismic Risk Assessment of Road in Earthquake Region

采用主成分分析与专家调查相结合的方法进行因子辨识,筛选出对公路沿线区域地震风险有显著影响的峰值加速度、植被覆盖率、地层岩性和地表坡度作为评价因子.引入云模型理论,改进传统层次分析法的不足,提出了基于云模型-层次分析法的地震区公路震害评估赋权方法.运用地理信息系统技术平台,研究了各风险因子的标度分值,建立了地震区公路震害风险评估模型并进行了实例分析.结果表明：实例工程震害风险指数在1.00～6.96之间,其中大部分区域震害风险指数处于5以下,路线起点南及东南为高峰值加速度、硬岩、大边坡坡度区域,震害风险指数接近7,风险评估计算结果与实际相符.

The risk factors were discriminated according to its influence on seismic risk of highway based on the principal component analysis and expert surveys. Four factors such as the peak acceleration, vegetation coverage, formation lithology, slope, were selected as evaluation factors for their significant effect. Traditional analytic hierarchy process was improved by resorting to the cloud model, and a weight approach was proposed for seismic risk assessment based on cloud model- analytic hierarchy process. The scale scores of each risk factor was studied by using geographic information systems technology platform. The assessment model of seismic risk was set up, and the method was validated. The results indicate that the seismic risk index of the experiment area is 1.00-6.96. Seismic risk value of most regional is less than 5.00, the maximum value in the south and the southeastof the starting point with high peak acceleration, hard rock and large slop is close to 7. Risk assessment results agree well with the measured data.