旅游危机事件网络舆情的监测预警指标体系研究

Research on the Monitoring and Early-warning Index Systems of Tourism Crisis Events' Network Public Opinions

根据旅游危机事件网络舆情的内涵和构成,运用修正德尔菲法、层次分析法,建构由三级指标组成的旅游危机事件网络舆情监测预警指标体系,确定各项指标的测量与量化方法,划分舆情风险警级,以湖南凤凰古城收费事件为例进行实证研究,结果发现由该指标体系得到的舆情风险指数可以对网络舆情演化进行模拟,起到了对网络舆情的监测和预警作用。

According to the connotation and composition of tourism crisis events＇ network public opinions, using corrected Delphi method and AHP, this paper designs an index system, which consists of three level indicators, for monitoring and early-warning the network pub-lic opinion on tourism crisis events. It defines the measurement and quantification methods of the indicators, establishes the classifying cri-teria of the levels of network public opinion risk, and carries out an empirical research using the charge policy event of Phoenix Ancient City in Hunan as an example. The results show that the proposed network public opinion risk index can simulate the evolution of network public opinion, and plays a desired role in tourism crisis events＇ network public opinion monitoring and early-warning.