基于因子交互分析的热电厂经济性优化研究

Factorial-interaction-based economic optimization research for combined heat and power plant

随着采暖期内多热源供热系统在我国北方大型城市的逐渐普及,热电厂的有效节能减排是目前亟待解决的问题之一,为达到有效节能降耗同时经济性最优的目的,以北方典型城市区域供热供电系统为案例,建立了基于采暖期供热负荷预测的热电厂热化系数优化模型。该模型基于无因次综合公式法,对采暖期供热负荷、供热量进行了预测,并以此为边界条件输入,形成了以热化系数为决策变量的供热-发电非线性优化模型。同时,考虑到模型中相关参数波动引发的不确定性问题,利用因子交互分析技术分析了不确定因子参数波动对多热源供热系统煤炭供应经济性的影响。分析结果表明,热电比与其它参数间的交互作用会对系统煤炭供应经济性产生重要影响,在影响因子潜在波动区间内,制定适宜的机组运行方式,在满足供热需求,发电上网-调峰的基础上,使得采暖期发电供热煤炭消耗总量降低,最终达到系统运行成本最优的目的。

Along with multi-source heating systems gradually employed in large cities of North China in heating period, saving energy and reducing energy consumption effectively have become one of the most important problems to be solved in the heat supply and power generation research areas. In this paper, the heat and power supply to a typical district heating region in a Northeast metropolis in heating period is utilized. Based on the heat load distribution prediction, a heat-power supply non-linear programming model is then developed, using cogeneration parameter of the CHP plant as the independent variable. Subsequently, considering the uncertainties due to the factor parameter fluctuation, the factor interaction analysis method is applied to analyze the effects of the factor parameter fluctuation on the coal supply cost of the multi-source heating system. The results show that interaction effects among heat-power ratio and other parameters are significant on the coal supply cost of the multi-source heating system, and the cost could be lowered through adjus- ting the related factor parameters reasonably.