摘要
针对目前我国列车运行晚点较严重的问题,提出一种扩展的模糊Petri网(extended fuuzy Petri net,EFPN),并以对列车正点运行有重大影响的主要因素为基础,模拟给出其因果关系,建立了基于EFPN的列车运行致因的分析模型,利用EFPN推理算法分析计算模型中某个致因因素导致列车运行晚点的真实度,真实度最高的致因因素则是导致列车运行晚点的最主要因素.实例分析表明,EFPN模型能够体现各因素之间的逻辑关系,通过定量分析可得到导致列车运行晚点的主要原因.
In view of the serious situation of train running delays,an extended fuzzy Petri net was proposed（extended fuuzy Petri net,EFPN）,and on the basis of some critical factors easily causing delays,a train delay causal analysis model based on EFPN was constructed after simulating and analyzing the causality of the given factors. EFPN reasoning algorithm was used to analyse and calculate the validity of the factors which lead to train delays,and the highest validity of the cause is the most key factor of train delays. Case analysis indicates that EFPN model can reflect the logical relationship among various factors,and it can get the main causes of train running delays through quantitative analysis.
出处
《天津科技大学学报》
CAS
2014年第4期53-57,共5页
Journal of Tianjin University of Science & Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61070021
11301382)
