政府投资对民间投资的挤入挤出效应研究——基于面板VAR模型的动态分析

Crowding-in(out)Effects of Government Investment on Private Investment——Based on Dynamic Analysis of Pvar Model

文章基于1997—2012年中国省级面板数据,分别以全国和中国东部、中部、西部地区为研究单位,运用面板VAR模型动态分析了政府投资对民间投资的影响。得出的结论是:政府投资对民间投资具有明显的挤入效应,并且中西部地区的挤入效果比东部地区强。同时民间投资相比政府投资,对国民经济的发展有更显著的促进作用。

This study is made based on the data of China＇s provincial panel data collected between 1997 and 2012,and it takes respectively the whole country and the eastern,central and western regions of China as research units. It dynamically analyzes,by means of the panel VAR model,the effects of government investment on private investment. It is found that government investment,especially in the central and western regions,has an obvious crowding-in effect on private investment in contrast with the eastern regions. However,private investment,compared with that from governments,tends to play a more significant role in promoting the development of the national economy.