中国城乡居民预防性储蓄动机强度测度:2002—2012

Precautionary Savings Motive Strength Measurement for Urban and Rural Residents in China:2002—2012

文章使用流动性约束拓展Dynan模型,对中国城镇、农村不同收入等级居民家庭预防性储蓄动机进行测度分析。结果表明:1.城乡居民预防性储蓄动机更多来自中等收入家庭,且不同收入等级家庭的预防性储蓄动机强度呈正态分布特征;2.当期流动性约束下,农村家庭预防性储蓄动机强度明显增强,估计结果更合理,而城镇居民储蓄行为不受当期流动性约束影响;3.服务类消费价格普遍上涨带来预期流动性约束对农村、城镇居民的储蓄行为都有显著影响,造成预防性储蓄动机增强。

With the liquidity constraints expanding Dynan model,this paper measures the precautionary savings motive strength of China＇s urban and rural households in different income levels. The empirical results show that：1. most precautionary savings come from the middle-income families,and the strength of precautionary saving motive from different income levels presents a normal distribution. 2. under the effect of current liquidity constraints,the precautionary savings motive of rural households significantly increase,which shows more reasonable estimation,while the effect to urban residents＇ savings behavior is not significant. 3.the liquidity constraints from the rising of service consumer price have significant impact on savings,and then results in an increase of precautionary in savings motive.