基于时变参数状态空间模型的我国能源效率变化研究

A Research on Chinese Energy Efficiency Based on the Time-Varying State Space Model

基于时变参数状态空间模型,以人均GDP和工业增加值占GDP的比重作为衡量工业化阶段的主要指标,以单位能耗GDP作为能源效率的衡量指标,实证分析工业化不同阶段对能源效率的影响。研究结果表明:在工业化发展的初期,工业成为经济发展的主导产业,工业对能源的巨大需求导致经济发展对能源的依赖性增强,人均GDP和工业增加值占比对能源效率的影响均较为明显;在工业化发展的中期,人均GDP对能源效率的影响趋于稳定,工业增加值占比对能源效率的影响逐渐趋于零。产业结构调整对改善能源效率的作用很小,加强区域间和国家间的节能技术合作可有效改善能源利用效率。

Using GDP per capita and the industrial proportion of GDP as the main index to represent the industrialization stage,this paper aims at empirically analyzing the factors which have influence on the energy productivity based on the time-varying state space model.The conclusion shows that GDP per capita and the industrial proportion of GDP have obvious effect on energy efficiency in the early stage of industrialization.The reason is not only that the industry has become the leading industry of economic development but also that the huge demand for energy in industry.Then economic development shows great dependence on energy.In the middle stage of industrialization development,the effect of GDP per capita on energy efficiency tends to be stable.And the influence of industrial added value on energy efficiency is approaching 0.Therefore, industrial structure has very small effect on improving energy efficiency.The way to improve energy efficiency is that strengthening energy-saving technology cooperation between regions and between countries.