北京体育产业可持续发展的系统动力学研究

System Dynamics Study on Sustainable Development of Sports Industry in Beijing

为推动北京体育产业可持续发展,运用系统动力学方法,分析北京体育产业系统的内外要素及其动态行为,建立北京体育产业可持续发展的系统动力学模型,并利用VENSIM—PLE5.10A软件模拟比较"传统型""核心驱动型""全面发展型"3种不同的发展模式。仿真结果表明:"全面发展型"模式促进了北京体育产业结构的优化和发展质量的提升,是实现北京体育产业可持续发展的发展模式。

In order to promote the sustainable development of sports industry in Beijing, this study uses the method of sys- tem dynamics, analyses the internal and external factors and the dynamic behavior of sports industry system in Beijing. This study established the system dynamics model of sustainable development of Beijing sports industry, and used the Vensim- PLE5.10a software to simulate the different development patterns,namely ＂traditional development pattern＂, ＂core driven development pattern ＂and ＂comprehensive development pattern ＂ . The simulation results show that： ＂comprehensive de- velopment pattern＂ promotes the optimization of Beijing sports industry structure and improves the quality of the develop- ment of sports industry in Beijing. ＂Comprehensive development pattem＂ is the model of development to achieve sustain- able development of sports industry in Beijing.