基于故障树分析法的涉诉信访预警指标体系构建与仿真分析

On Early- warning Index System of the Litigation Letters Risk Based on Fault-Tree Analysis Method

涉诉信访风险预警的关键在于建立一个科学的预警模型,而模型的核心就是指标体系。本文将社会风险预警研究聚焦到司法领域,通过分析涉诉信访风险的关联因素,运用故障树分析法构建了涉诉信访风险预警指标体系。该指标体系的信度和效度在使用NetLogo软件进行涉诉信访风险动态预警仿真模拟中得到了验证,能够有效降低涉诉信访风险,克服现有涉诉信访风险评估完全依靠法官个人经验而缺乏定量支持的弱点,增强涉诉信访风险预警的科学性和可操作性,为人民法院在司法过程中加强案件风险前馈控制、有效规避可能产生的风险提供了可能。

The key to litigation letters risk wanting is to establish a scientific early - warning model to monitor and evaluate the risk, and the core of the model is an appropriate index system. This paper focuses on the study of letter risk warning in the ju- dicial field. Based on the analysis of the main factors associated with the risk of Litigation letters, an early - warning index system of the litigation letters risk is built by using the Fault Tree Analysis method, with multiple hierarchical levels and diverse indica- tors. The reliability and effectiveness of the index system is validated by the simulation results based on the NetLogo software. By using this early - warning index system, the weakness of the current subjective judgment for the estimation of litigation letters risk could be effectively mended in a scientific and practical way. It would greatly help the people~ court improve the early controlling of the risk to effectively mitigate the social risk.