全球粮食价格波动的影响因素分析——以小麦为例

Determinants of World Grain Price Volatility:Evidence from Wheat Market

以1975—2012年间国际小麦价格为例,从供给、需求和金融化三个视角分析了国际粮食价格的影响因素。研究发现,人口增长和生物质能源发展是影响小麦价格长期走势的最主要需求因素;金融投机是造成小麦价格短期波动的最主要原因。研究还发现,粮食储备变化也是小麦价格短期内波动的原因之一,而能源价格、美元汇率和人口结构未产生实质性影响。

Based on the annual data of world wheat price between 1975 and 2012 ,this paper analyzes the determinants of grain price volatility from the perspective of demand ,supply and financial speculation .The basic conclusions are listed as follows：World population growth and the increasing bio -fuel productions have played the most important roles in the long-run trend of wheat price ,and that financial speculation and grain stock have caused the surge of price volatility in the short run while other factors such as energy price ,dollar currency rate and demographic structure only cast relative effects on the global wheat price volatility .