开放框架下泰勒规则在中国前瞻性扩展的实证研究

The Empirical Analysis on Forward-looking Augmented Taylor Rule under the Framework of Open-economy,A Chinese Perspective

将传统泰勒规则在开放框架下进行扩展,引入汇率因素与货币因素,并实证检验其后顾性、同期、前瞻性形式的中国情况,具有独有的现实意义。在仅以通胀率为目标的开放框架下,我国情况符合同期扩展泰勒规则,能起到稳定经济的作用。在受到相关冲击后的反应方面,同期扩展泰勒规则中短期利率对于通胀缺口或实际产出缺口的响应与传统泰勒规则中的状况不同。开放框架下同期扩展泰勒规则可以作为我国货币政策规则的参照。

This paper augments the classical Taylor rule under the framework of open-economy, via introducing exchange rate factor and monetary factor, and then, tests its strength in backward-looking, current, and forward-looking forms respectively, in a Chinese perspective. The empirical result shows that, the current augmented Taylor rule is able to model the Chinese situation, meanwhile, it is effective under an open-economy who aims at the inflation target only. When refers to the responses after certain impulses, the short term interest rate reacts to the inflation gap as well as the real output gap differ- ently, under the classical or the current augmented Taylor rule. The current augmented Taylor rule under an open-economy could be a consulting for Chinese monetary rules.