能源强度、工业化与经济梯度的交互冲击响应研究

Research on the Interactional Impulse Response among Energy Intensity,Industrialization and Economic Gradient

利用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法实证研究了我国东部、中部和西部地区能源强度、工业化和经济梯度的交互冲击响应关系,结果显示工业化对三个变量变化的影响程度均最大,说明我国现阶段工业化是非常重要的一个变量;除中部地区外,工业化的发展会降低能源强度,体现出能源节约的特征;经济梯度的提高会促进中西部地区对能源依赖型产品的消费,从而引起其能源强度的上升;经济梯度对东部地区工业化有着正向的影响,而对中西部地区工业化有着负向的影响;能源强度对工业化与经济梯度的变化影响程度较小,说明我国现阶段节能目标的约束性还未完全体现出来。

With the help of VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper empirically comparatively studied the interactional impulse response among energy intensity, industrialization and economic gradient in eastern part, central part and western part in china. The results show that the influence degree of industrialization to the three variables is the maximum, meaning that industrialization is a very important variable. Except the central part, the development of industrialization reduces energy intensity, reflecting the characteristics of energy saving. The increased economic gradient in the central and western part will promote more products with large energy consumption, which will lead to more energy intensity. Economic gradient has a positive effect on industrialization in eastern part, and negative effect in central and western parts. The effect of energy intensity to industrialization and economic gradient is small, showing that the constraint of energy saving target is still not fully reflected.