柑橘黄龙病疫情运动规律与预警模型研究

Research on movement rule and early warning model of citrus huanglongbing

为了揭示柑橘黄龙病整体疫情入侵、扩散、流行等运动规律,对柑橘木虱种群的数量消长情况进行多年多点的系统监测,同时在柑橘黄龙病果实显症期采用全境式普查方法开展疫情调查。2002—2010年连续8年的监测和普查结果表明,柑橘黄龙病疫情入侵分布呈南重北轻、东高西低的特征,其扩散趋势为自南而北逐年推进,并呈螺旋式上升。疫情长期运动一般需经历入侵上升、高位运行、受控回落周期性变化,其运动周期为10年左右,并建立时序运动模型:P=-0.0044N2+0.056N-0.0698(n=9,r=0.9552**,r0.01=0.7977)。应用上述模型进行逐年修补,若预测下年度果园加权发病率在1%以上,则可发布预警。

In order to reveal the pattern of invasion and epidemic diffusion of citrus huanglongbing （ HLB ） , population dynamics of diaphorina citri were systematically monitored at several constant sites , and disease general surveys were conducted as well from 2002 to 2010 .The results showed HLB in south and east were more serious than that in north and west respectively during invasion period , while disease spread from south to north with a spire upward trend year by year during diffusion period .A long-term movement cycle of HLB containing invasion , rise, high-order, and decline lasted for 10 years approximately , followed by a epidemic trajectory model： P =-0.0044N2 ＋0.056N -0.0698 （n =9, r =0.9552＊＊, r0.01 =0.7977）.An early warning could be issued based on the model when weighted incidence of HLB exceeded 1%in next year .