河北省碳排放因素分解及实证分析

The Decomposition Analysis Model and Empirical Study on Carbon Emissions for Hebei Province

基于IPCC碳排放恒等式,采用对数平均权重分解法建立河北省人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析河北省1980—2011年间能源碳排放强度、单位GDP能源强度、经济发展对人均碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,能源碳排放强度对人均碳排放影响不显著,单位GDP能源强度在总体上抑制了人均碳排放的增长,经济发展是人均碳排放增长的主要拉动因素。最后提出减排的政策建议。

Based on the identity of carbon emissions,a decompostion model of carbon emissions per capita for Hebei prov-ince is set up by adopting Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia method.We adopt the model to analyze the influence of carbon intensity,energy intensity and economic development on carbon emissions per capita in Hebei province from 1 980 to 201 1 . The results show that the contribution rate of carbon intensity to carbon emissions per capita is not significant;the energy intensity restrains the growth of carbon emissions per capita;the economic development is the dominant factor causing the growth of carbon emissions.In the end,the policy suggestions are offered.