钻屑复合指标预测工作面突出危险性

Prediction for Coal and Gas Outburst in Working Face Based on Drilling Crumb Composite Index

钻屑敏感指标(K1、△h2和S值)及其临界值是评价工作面突出危险性的重要依据。通过分析三者的之间的关系,给出判断工作面钻屑指标敏感性比较标准和依据;针对S值标准提出了钻孔扩容假设,并以此给出扩容下限条件,根据数理统计理论求得单指标突出概率;结合模糊评价理论,提出多指标法计算工作面煤与瓦斯突出风险,并在试验工作面得到成功应用。

The sensitive indexes of drilling crumbs （ K1 ,△h2 and S） and theft critical value were the important basis to evaluate the risk of coal and gas outburst in working face. Through analyzing the relationship of three indexes, it gave the foundation and criterion for comparing the sensitivity of drilling crumb indexes in working face. For the criterion of S value, it proposed drilling hole expanding hypothesis and gave the expansion limit conditions. According to the statistics theory, it got the single index outburst incidence. Com- bined with fuzzy evaluating theory, it put forward the multiple indexes method to calculate the risk of coal and gas outburst in working face. This method was applied in experimental working face successfully.