城乡非农就业结构、人口转移方式与城镇化水平的关系——基于中国数据的研究

Urban-rural Non-agricultural Employment Structure,Population Transfer Mode and Urbanization Level:Based on China's Data

利用中国1952—2011年的数据,从理论和实证两个方面研究了非农化、城乡非农结构和人口转移方式对城镇化的影响。研究表明,城镇化水平与非农就业比重、农村非农就业占城乡总非农就业比重、城镇劳动参与率、农村劳动参与率四个变量间存在着均衡关系。中国城镇化在波动期、持续增长期、快速增长期等几个发展阶段中,受非农化、城乡非农结构和人口转移方式的影响不一样。中国城镇化要健康发展,应该调整城乡非农结构和平滑城镇化过程。同时,要注意改变人口转移方式,使更多的非劳动力能伴随劳动力的转移而进入城镇。

Using the data of China from 1952 to 2011 , this paper studies the influence of non-agriculturalization ,urban-rural non-agricultural employment structure and population transfer mode on urbanization from two aspects of theory and empirical .The results show these variables reflect non-agriculturalization ,urban-rural nonagricultural employment structure and population transfer mode .There is a kind of long-run equilibrium relationship between urbanization level and four variables ： non-agricultural employment rate , rural non-agricultural employment proportion in non-agricultural employment ,labor force participation rate in Urban and labor force participation rate in rural area .Chinese urbanization has experienced a fluctuation period ,a stable Growth period and a rapid Growth period .The influence of non-agriculturalization , urban-rural nonagricultural employment structure and population transfer mode are different in each period .In order to make Chinese urbanization develop more healthily ,we should adjust urban-rural non-agricultural employment structure and reduce the speed of urbanization . At the same time ,we should change population transfer mode to make more non-labor force transfer to urban area with the transfer of labor force .