科技对我国区域碳排放的影响分析

Impact of Science and Technology Development on the Domestic Regional Carbon Emissions in China

通过测算全国30个省/市2002—2011年的碳排放量,并进行碳排放区域划分,将30个省/市按照碳集中度划分为重度、中度和轻度碳排放区域。利用STIRPAT扩展模型,并采用SPSS岭回归方法对3个碳排放区域的碳排放进行了影响因素分析。分析表明:经济增长仍是影响碳排放的主要因素;我国在低碳技术的投入和发展上还比较落后,使得整体科技进步所带来的碳排放的增加量比利用科技手段减排的CO_2要多。

This paper estimated the carbon emissions of 30 Chinese domestic provinces/cities from 2002 to 2011, and divided 30 provinces/cities into heavy carbon, medium carbon and mild carbon regions according to the carbon concentration. This paper analyses factors affecting carbon emissions of three regions using STIRPAT extension model and SPSS ridge regression method. The result shows that economic growth is the main factor affecting carbon emissions, and China’s low-carbon technology still lags behind the developed countries, resulting in more carbon emissions caused by the whole technology advance than carbon emission reductions caused by low-carbon technology advance.