基于系统动力学的港口对区域经济发展的影响研究

Port Impact Studies on Regional Economic Development Based on System Dynamics

充分考虑并量化了港口对自然资源的消耗和对环境质量的影响,运用系统动力学方法构建港口经济贡献模型,并将其应用于天津港对天津市经济贡献的分析之中。通过基本模拟与政策模拟,对天津港2020年之前的发展状况进行了预测和分析,并提出加强环境保护与资源节约以促进港口可持续发展的建议。

Taking account of and quantifying the consumption of natural resources and the impact of environmental quality,we built the model of the port economic contribution based on the system dy-namics.And the model was applied to the Tianjin port.Through the basic and policy simulation,we analyzed and predicted the development of the Tianjin Port before 2020 to promote the sustainable de-velopment of port.