信贷期限结构的通货膨胀效应分析——基于山东省数据的实证分析

Analysis on the Inflation Effect of Credit Term Structure——Empirical Analysis Based on Data of Shandong

本文基于2010年至2013年山东省的短期贷款、中长期贷款和居民消费物价总指数的月度数据,采用协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解法对山东省信贷期限结构的通货膨胀效应进行实证分析。结果发现:短期贷款对物价水平产生负效应,具有抑制通货膨胀的作用,而中长期贷款会导致物价上涨,形成通货膨胀压力。

This papers chooses the monthly data of short-term loans,medium and long-term loans and the consumer price index of Shandong from 2010 to 2013. And then it studies the inflation effect of the term structure of credit in Shandong by using co-integration test,error correction model,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method. The result shows that the short-term loan has a negative effect on the price level,curbing the inflation,while the medium-and long-term loans will lead to higher price,bring the pressure of inflation.