当前黄河防汛特点与水库优化调度

New Characteristics of the Yellow River Flood Prevention and Suggestion on Optimal Reservoir Operation

分析了当前黄河防汛出现的新特点:人类活动造成的黄河流域下垫面变化对中小洪水影响较大,但对大洪水不会有决定性的影响;河道被侵占,进一步发生萎缩,将加重洪水灾害;小浪底水库为黄河下游水沙调度提供了优化空间,但调度难度及要求相应增大;群防队伍组织困难,防汛战斗力差,遇险外迁撤离任务重;黄河下游河道特殊,情况复杂,舆论宣传报道难掌控。提出了未来水库优化调度的建议:黄河水沙关系不平衡,需进一步完善水沙调控的工程体系和非工程措施,开展水沙联合调度;黄河属于资源性缺水河流,应进行分期汛限水位和分级洪水调度研究,开展洪水资源化利用的合理调度。同时分析总结了调水调沙的作用与效果,提出在基本保障黄河两岸工农业引用水的情况下,要用好规划确定的黄河输沙与生态水量,持续开展黄河下游调水调沙。

This paper analyzed the new characteristics of the Yellow River flood prevention：the land surface change in the Yellow River basin caused by human activities has great effects on the medium and small flood,while the impact on the large flood is not significant;river channel occupied and further shrinking will aggravate the flood disaster;Xiaolangdi reservoir provides optimal space for the water and sediment regulation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River,but the difficulty of scheduling and its corresponding requirement is increasing;the organization of flood prevention team is difficult,the capacity of flood defense is weak,and the task of people evacuation is heavy when the flood disaster is coming;the river channel in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is special and complex,while the public opinion propaganda is difficult to control. Additionally, the paper put forward the suggestion on the future optimal reservoir operation：the Yellow River water and sediment relationship is not balance,so it needs to further improve the water and sediment regulation engineering and non-engineering measures,and to carry out joint scheduling of water and sediment;the Yellow River is one of the resource shortage rivers,it is necessary to develop the researches on the staged limit water level of flood season and the graded flood dispatching,as well as the reasonable dispatching of flood resource utilization. At the same time,by analyzing and summarizing the functions and effects of water and sediment regulation,the paper proposed that under the prerequisite of ensuring the industrial and agricultural water uses on both sides of the Yellow River,it should use effectively the sediment transportation and ecological water in the planning of the Yellow River,and develop the water and sediment regulation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.