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哈夫模型的修正及其在城市商业网点规划中应用——以江苏省常州市为例 被引量:10

Modification of Huff Model and its application in urban commercial network planning:a case of Changzhou City,Jiangsu Province
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摘要 以江苏省常州市商业网点规划为例,采用哈夫模型预测常州市和武进区两级商业中心的服务区及潜在顾客数。在下述三方面有所创新:(1)传统哈夫模型只适用于同级点状商业中心的市场区域预测,在划分城市不同等级商业中心的市场服务区时有很大局限性,提出一种λ取值的理论模式以优化不同等级商业中心的服务区划分;(2)消费者到商业中心的距离D,包括直线距离、路网距离和路网交通时间,以这三类距离划分市场服务区存在很大差异。研究表明,基于路网距离和交通时间的哈夫模型,划定的商业中心服务区较为接近现实情况。(3)日本通产省的修正哈夫模型简单实用,但在分析次级商业中心的服务区时,需要重新调整距离衰减系数λ值,以提高哈夫模型的预测准确性。若辅之以商业市场调查确定λ值,市场区划分的准确性将显著改善。 Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province is to the south of the Yangtze River, and in the middle between Shang- hai and Nanjing City. It is a prosperous city with land area of 4 372.15 square kilometers. In 2012, the area of urban built up is 183.24 square kilometers, The GDP of the city is 396.98 billion RMB. The ratio of the first industry, sec- ond industry and third industry is 3.2 : 52.9 : 43.9. The average personal GDP in Changzhou City is 85 039 RMB, or 13 471 USD, ranked 4th among 13 cities in Jiangsu Province. Changzhou has 5 districts and 2 county-level cities. To promote the sound development of Wujin District of Changzhou City' s business cycles, the paper modified the Huff model to delineate market domains of Changzhou and Wujin business centers. Huff model has been widely ap- plied in urban retail market domain planning since its introduction. Huff model is applied to calibrate interactions between Central Business Districts (CBDs), surrounding enterprises, and consumers. The model shows high accura- cy in predicting business cycles' market shares. Also, when Huff model is applied to delineate market domains for a number of business cycles, the market domains appear as gradational cycles, which are closer to actuality. After 40 years of applications, the interpretability, convenience, and flexibility of Huff models have gained wide accolade from businesses, governmental analysts, and scholars. To determine market domains for business cycles of different scales, the paper suggested multiplying the distance from consumers' to the secondary business cycles by the dis- tance to the primary business cycles in place of the square of consumers' distance to one business center. This modi- fied A works better for delimiting market domains for business cycles of different scales. Also, the paper proposed that business attraction should be determined by mid-sized to large retails. Moreover, our research compares straight line distance, network distance, and network time to provide alternative insights for business planning. The conclu- sions are as follows: (1)the choice of three types of distances (straight line distance, network distance, and network time) has great impacts on results of Huff model. Survey method is optimal to obtain the distance. When data collec- tion is difficult, network distance and travel time are closer to reality; (2) the business attraction should be deter- mined by the areas of mid-sized and large retails. This makes survey easier and works well; (3) the Tajima modifica- tion of Huff model is convenient and interpretable, but it cannot be applied to delineating market domains for business cycles of different scales. In such occasions, the modification of A in this paper can be adopted with survey method (if possible) ; (4) it is also crucial to reasonably determine region sizes of consumer orientations. Small region sizes generate huge computing load, while overly large region sizes affect the accuracy of Huff model. With those four main points,this paper helps users to figure out a balance between the needs for accuracy and costs of survey and analysis.
出处 《干旱区地理》 CSCD 北大核心 2014年第4期802-811,共10页 Arid Land Geography
基金 "十二五"科技支撑计划项目课题"杜镇区域集约发展决策支持系统开发"(批准号:2012BAJ22B03) 国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:51108325)
关键词 商业网点规划 哈夫模型 路网距离 市场服务区 urban commercial network planning huff Model network distance market area
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参考文献25

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