非等间隔灰色模型在矿区沉陷预测中的应用

Application of unequal interval grey model in mining subsidence prediction

针对目前采用灰色模型预测矿区沉陷时只针对1个点,缺乏工作面整体下沉预测及其精度研究的问题,以工作面走向线和倾向线地表观测站的下沉量为研究对象,以相邻监测时间间隔为权建立非等间隔灰色模型,预测下一时刻观测站的下沉量,进而得出下一时刻走向线和倾向线下沉曲线;采用概率积分法求参的方法验证工作面整体沉陷预测精度,采用预测值与实际值求参时所得结果相差不大,验证了采用非等间隔灰色模型预测矿区整体沉陷的可行性。

For problems that mining subsidence prediction by use of gray model was only for one point at present and lacked overall subsidence prediction of working face as well as checkout of prediction accuracy, mining subsidence data was taken as research object which was monitored by surface observation station on strike line and dip line of working face, and interval of adjacent monitoring time was taken as weight to establish an unequal interval grey model for predicting subsidence value of the surface observation station at the next moment, thus subsidence curves of the strike line and the dip line were gotten. A parameter calculating method based on probability integral method was used to verify prediction accuracy of overall subsidence of working face. The difference between parameters calculated by use of prediction data and the ones by use of actual data is small, which verifies feasibility of the unequal interval grey model applied in prediction of overall mining subsidence.