基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的县域干旱预测——以关中平原腹地合阳县为例

Drought Prediction in the County Based on Gray GM(1,1)Model——Taking Heyang County in Guanzhong Plain as a case

从县域角度出发，利用合阳县1962～2009年降水资料，在分析合阳县降水量变化及特点的前提下，利用GM（1，1）灰色模型对其未来干旱年进行预测，之后在分析合阳县水资源供需平衡的基础上提出抗旱建议。结果表明：（1）降水系列呈现降水总量少、降水年内分配不均匀、降水大致有周期性特征、降水在相对的极度降雨后会出现相对极度的干旱、干旱逐渐递增且周期内降雨变化幅度增大等基本规律；（2）预测合阳县将在2016～2017、2023～2024、2030～2031年期间内发生干旱；（3）当遇到历史枯水年（即保障程度达到95％）时，水量供需不平衡。建议合阳县今后在组织、预案、信息、物资、技术、政策等方面做足保障以抗旱。

From the perspective of the county, the use of precipitation of Heyang County from 1962 to 2009, under the analysis of changes in precipitation and characteristics, used GM （1,1） gray model to predict its future dry years. Then made the drought recommendations after the analysis of water supply and demand balance. The results showed that： （1） Total precipitation series presents less precipitation, uneven distribution of rainfall during the year, roughly cyclical characteristics of precipitation, precipitation in the opposite extreme rainfall will occur relatively extreme drought, drought is gradually increasing and changing rainfall cycle amplitude increases. （2） The future will come droughts occurred during the period between 2016 and 2017, between 2023 and 2024, between 2030 and 2031. （3） When experiencing history dry year （That level of protection up to 95%）, the supply and demand is unbalanced. Finally, recommend Heyang County to done to protect the future in terms of organization, plans, information, materials, technologies and policies to drought.