我国粮食生产影响因素分析——基于C-D生产函数的岭回归分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Production in China——Based on C-D Production Function and Ridge Regression

根据1990~2008年我国粮食生产要素投入数据,从粮食生产规模、劳动力投入、机械投入、化肥投入、农田基础设施、自然灾害的角度,基于修正的C-D生产函数,采用岭回归对我国粮食生产的影响因素进行的计量分析结果表明：机械投入增加和灌溉条件的改善是粮食产量增加的重要原因,劳动投入、化肥投入并非粮食产量增加的推动因素,自然灾害对粮食生产仍存在较强负面影响,粮食生产表现出规模报酬递增情况。

This paper analyzed the influence of different factors to China＇s grain production from the point of food production scale, labor input, mechanical inputs, fertilizer inputs, agricultural infrastructure, natural disasters, using ridge regression based on modified C - D production function and the data of China＇s grain production from 1990 to 2008. After the analysis, some useful conclusions were got. The increase of mechanical inputs and the improvement of irrigation is an important reason for food production. Labor input, fertilizer inputs are not the key factor to food production. At present, natural disasters still has strong negative impact on food production. Food production showing increasing returns to scale case.