经济转型中的潜在增长率变化与新一轮“开放促改革”的突破口

The Change of China's Potential Growth Rate in Economic Transformation and the Breakthrough for New Round of “Promoting Reform through Opening up”

经济结构战略性调整是我国加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向;在经济转型与结构调整加速的当下,中国的经济增长率相对放缓,人们日益关注中国经济增长的内生动力和长期趋势。对中国经济增长趋势的判断,离不开对潜在经济增长率的估计。通过应用HP滤波法、多变量状态空间法等经典方法估计中国潜在经济增长率发现,目前中国经济潜在增长率相对回落,从2008年国际金融危机前的两位数回落到2012年的8%左右;考虑资本冲击因素后,潜在经济增长率的变化幅度扩大,近期下降程度较为明显,而资本冲击因素的影响取决于资本要素市场配置效率,因此,资本要素市场配置效率低是制约中国潜在经济增长率的重要原因。对中国经济长期增长动力的判断离不开如何向开放要动力、向改革要活力,中国新一轮"开放促改革"的突破口在于资本要素配置的市场化和全球化,并有中国(上海)自由贸易试验区作为先行先试基地。资本要素配置的市场化依赖于人民币对内对外价格的市场化,资本要素配置的全球化取决于人民币国际化和资本项目开放。

Economic restructuring is the main direction for the transformation of China's economic development mode. But in the process of economic transformation,China's economic growth has relatively slowed. There is a growing concern about the endogenous growth momentum and long-term trends in China. With HP filtering method and multivariate state space method,this thesis finds out that the potential growth rate in China has relatively declined from the double-digit before the global financial crisis in 2008 down to about 8% in 2012. Lower capital allocation efficiency,together with capital supply shocks,is an important reason for the recent decline in potential growth rate. For the long-term economic growth momentum in China,the breakthrough of new round of'promoting reform through opening up'lies in market-oriented reform and globalization configuration of capital element,which can take China( Shanghai) pilot free trade zone as a test base. The market-oriented reform of capital element needs the liberalization of interest rate and exchange rate,while globalization configuration of capital element depends on RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization.