雷电灾害风险评估中损失量的量化分析

Quantification Analysis of Loss in Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment

为了更好地做好雷电灾害风险评估,减少雷电带来的损失风险,提出了对雷电灾害风险评估标准中损失量的量化方法。一种方法是基于年雷暴日的量化,另一种方法是利用闪电定位资料,采用了多元回归分析对损失量进行量化,回归试验结果表明:F分布高度显著,相关系数平方可达0.7569。后一种量化方法比前一种量化方法造成的相对误差更小,因此利用年雷暴日量化分析仍存在不足,而基于闪电资料的量化分析更能科学地量化损失量,进而为精细化的雷电灾害风险评估提供科学的参考依据。

In order to improve lightning disaster risk assessment, two quantification methods of the loss （Lx） in lightning disaster risk assessment standards thunderstorm days, and the other on the multiple re are proposed. One is based on the quantification of gression analysis to quantify the loss by means of the lightning location data. The results of the regression analysis show that the F statistic distribution is highly significant, and R^2 is over 0. 7569. It is relative error comparing with the first method; some inadequacies, and the quantifica advantageous. References are provide concluded that the second method can produce a the quantification based on thunderstorm days tion analysis of the loss on the basis of lightning data of d for refined lightning disaster risk assessment. smaller still has is more