基于层次分析法的大连区域雷灾易损性评价

AHP-Based Risk Assessment of Regional Lightning Disasters

根据大连地区近6年雷电灾害资料,40年雷暴资料,以大连地理、气候环境为背景,通过计算指标权重,采用层次分析法对大连区域雷灾易损性进行评价,并通过一致性检验。结果显示,金州新区属于极高风险区域,瓦房店属于高风险区域,大连、普兰店、庄河属于低风险区域,旅顺属于极低风险区域。结果表明雷灾区域易损性分析不仅取决于样本区域的自然雷暴日,还与样本区域的经济发展情况、人口密度、历史灾害等多方面因素有关,各指标影响权重也并非相同。采用层次分析法进行区域雷灾评价研究,能够有效减少人为因素,为防雷减灾提供了依据。

By means of lightning disaster data for nearly six years and annual thunderstorm data for 40 years, considering the background of the geographical environment and climate, the vulnerability of thunder disasters in Dalian is assessed, in which six indicators are selected, calculated by using AHP, and passed the significance test. The results show that Jinzhou has the highest risk; Wafangdian is the second, Dalian, Pulandian, and Zhuanghe are the next; Lushun has relatively low risk. It is showed that the risk assessment for regional lightning disasters is not only depended on the number of thunder storm days, but also on the economic development, the density of population, the history of disasters, as well as the weights of different indexes. The assessment analysis of regional thunder storm disasters with AHP can reduce the impact of man-induced factors effectively. The results provide a basis for lightning protection and disaster reduction.