河南夏季日最大电力负荷预测模型

Daily Maximum Power Load Prediction in Summer in Henan Province

利用2005—2009年河南逐日最大电力负荷和气象资料,分析了河南日最大电力负荷的变化特征及其与气象因子的关系。河南日最大电力负荷季节变化呈双峰型,最大的峰值出现在夏季,次峰值在冬季。夏季电力负荷与气温和炎热指数有密切的关系。用逐步回归方法,针对夏季(方案1,不区分工作日和休息日)以及周一至周日(方案2,区分工作日和休息日)分别建立日最大电力负荷预测模型,并对2010年夏季逐日最大电力负荷进行预测,两种预测方案对2010年夏季日最大电力负荷预测的平均相对误差均小于3%,相关系数均达到0.90,两方案在工作日预测结果都较好,但休息日预测误差相对较大。

By using the dat[y maxtmum powc~ ,u^u over Henan Province from 2005 to 2009, and the stepwise regression method, the summer daily maximum power load prediction models are set up. The models for the whole summer （Scheme 1） and each day of a week （Scheme 2） are established, respectively. The daily maximum power load forecasts for summer 2010 are made by the models. It is found that the daily maximum power loads in working days （Monday to Friday） show different inter-annual variation features with weekends （Saturday and Sunday）; the daily maximum power load is closely connected with both air temperature and hot index, and can be predicted well by the two schemes. The average prediction errors with the two models for summer 2010 are less than 3 ~//0, and the correlation coefficients are large than 0.9, which shows their good forecasting ability.