人口老龄化经济效应研究

On the Economic Effects of Population Ageing

该文运用动态世代交叠模型,预测人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资的短期和长期影响,进一步考察其对生产能力的间接影响。通过将劳动供给和人力资本投资决策视为内生变量,模拟研究表明,短期内人口老龄化为青年人提供了更多人力资本投资机会,导致劳动供给减少,产出水平下降,人口老龄化经济成本增加。可是,长期内人口老龄化为社会提供更多的熟练劳动力,提高劳动参与率和产出水平,降低人口老龄化的经济成本。

This study explores the short-term and long-term impact of population ageing on labor supply and human capital investment, as well as the induced effects on output. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model, labor supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital. Consequently, the reduction in labor supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However, current and future middle-age cohorts produce a lot of skilled labor, which eventually raises labor participation rate as well as productive capacity and lowers the cost of population ageing.