若干房地产行业宏观调控工具的模拟和比较——以北京和上海为例

Comparison of Policy Instrument on Real Estate Industry:Case Study of Beijing and Shanghai Based on Dynamic Multi-Regional CGE Model

文章将动态多区域可计算一般均衡模型和政策模拟系统引入房地产调控政策的研究,设计了反映投资工具、税收工具和价格工具调控过程的三种政策情景,模拟并对比了不同调控工具对北京和上海宏观经济的影响。研究发现,不同的房地产行业调控政策对GDP的影响存在明显区域分异。税率调控政策是最松的,投资调控政策前松后紧,而价格调控政策前紧后松;投资调控政策对房地产行业就业的影响最大;税率调控政策对居民消费的促进作用最大;价格调控政策对地方政府收入的负面影响最大,对房地产价格的影响也最大。根据研究结果,建议在房地产行业调控中采取中央—地方联合治理的二元管理模式,即中央政府设定综合调控宏观目标,将政策细则的制定权移交至地方政府,由地方政府根据本地的经济特征进行政策工具选择和执行节奏控制。

In recent years, the rapid rise of household price has threaten economic growth and social stability in China. How to design targeted control policy is a focus concerned by academia and government. Researches on control policy of real estate are too theorized to be transferred to operational policy tools. And regional solutions are difficult to be carried out for lacking of regional considerations. Aimed to those two weakness, this paper introduced dynamic multi-regional CGE model and policy simulation system, designed 3 scenarios for investment tools, tax tools and price tools, simulated and compared the impact of those tools on Beijing and Shanghai.Our study found that tax tools had least impact on the effects from real estate industry to GDP, investment tools would have stronger impact in later period, price tools would have less impact in later period. We also found that investment tools had the strongest impact on employment of real estate industry, tax tools had the strongest positive impact on consumption, and price tools had the strongest negative impact on government＇ s income and household price.