水资源环境与社会经济系统耦合建模和仿真测度——基于洞庭湖流域的研究

The Coupling Modeling and Simulation Measure Between Water Resource & Environment and Socio-Economic System:Based on Dongting Lake Basin

采用水资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价函数,构建灰色关联度模型对洞庭湖流域24县市系统耦合度及动态耦合过程仿真测度,结果表明:1流域整体而言水资源环境条件优于社会经济发展状况,水资源开发利用潜力较大。22002—2012年各县市系统耦合度指数均在[0.6,0.7]区间,处于磨合耦合阶段,系统发展较为协调。3耦合态势可分为倒U型,U型和单向递增型三种不同类型,与差异化的水资源条件和社会经济发展水平有关。随着该区域社会经济快速发展,大多县市表现出较低的水资源集约利用水平产生越来越强的胁迫效应,流域水生态经济协调发展程度有待于进一步提升。

With the rapid exploitation of Dongting Lake Basin in recent years, the coupling between the social and economic systems, underpinned by the water resource has large effects on sustainability of the Basin development to some extent. This paper evaluates the coupling functions between the water resource ＆ environment and socio-economic development in order to establish the grey-box model which can be used to measure the degree of coupling and simulate the dynamic coupling corresponding to the 24 counties and cities in the Basin. The result demonstrates that： 1）The efficiency of water resource exploitation maintains a lower level in the ecology, compared with the development of socioeconomics; Nevertheless, the water resource ＆ environment still has a large potential capability to sustain future growth. 2） The coupling index being in the interval [0.6, 0.7] indicates a stage of running in effects and system coordinated development. 3） The relationship of coupled process can be described by an inverted U-shape, a U-shape and a unidirectional increasing curve, according to the varying conditions of water resources and socio-economic development. With the rapid regional socio-economic development, the low efficiency of water resource usage may increasingly produce severe constraint effects thus the coordinated development of ecology and socio-economics systems should be enhanced progressively.