基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的河南省物流经济发展规模实证分析及预测

Empirical Analysis and Forecasting of Development Scale of Logistics Economy of Henan Based on GM(1,1)

基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,通过对物流业发展的重要社会经济发展指标参数进行分析,利用2006-2011年河南省物流业发展的货运量及构成、社会物流总额及构成等样本数据,分析和研究了影响现代物流业发展的重要因素,并定量预测河南省物流产业2012-2016未来5年的发展规模,根据分析结果提出进一步促进河南省物流业发展的对策建议,对基础设施建设及区域经济发展具有指导意义,为河南省今后的现代物流业发展提供实证依据和可持续发展建议。

In this paper, on the basis of the GM（1,1）, we analyzed the parameters of the social and economic indexes of the development of the logistics industry, then using the sample data of the logistics industry of Henan of the period between 2006 and 2011, analyzed the important factors influencing the development of the modern logistics industry, forecast quantitatively the development scale of the logistics industry for the five years from 2012 to 2016, and at the end, proposed the countermeasures for the further development of the logistics industry of Henan.