基于LEAP和综合集成赋权的城市低碳交通政策选择方法

LEAP System and Integrated Weight Based Policy Choice Method for Urban Low-carbon Transportation

为提高城市低碳交通政策选择的准确性,运用灰色关联和主成分分析相结合的综合集成赋权法,筛选低碳交通情景政策的指标集,设计4种情景政策,选择长期能源可替代规划(LEAP)系统模型进行不同情景政策的低碳交通政策效果测度计算。结果表明:公交发展政策和新能源发展政策对城市交通碳排放影响的重要度最高;采取低碳交通政策能显著控制碳排放,公交与新能源共同发展政策的效果最好,新能源发展政策效果略好于公交发展政策;碳排放量、碳排放强度、减排贡献率三方面的计算结论具有很强的一致性,说明该方法可信度高,能为决策部门选择中长期的城市低碳交通政策提供客观、定量、可行的方法参考。

In order to improve the adaptability of urban low-carbon transportation policies, integrated weight method with the combination of grey relational analysis and principal component analysis was used to select the indicators of low-carbon transportation policies, simulated 4 policy scenarios, and the effect of each scenario by Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning （LEAP） system was evaluated. The results indicate that public transport priority policy and new energy priority policy have the most significant influence on urban transportation carbon emission; low-carbon transportation policies can reduce carbon emission effectively, and in terms of policy effect, collaborative development of public transport and new energy is the best, and new energy priority policy is a little better than public transport priority policy; the evaluation results of carbon emission, carbon intensity and carbon reduction contribution rate have high consistence, and the method proposed in the paper is feasible and effective, which can provide objective, quantitative and practical reference for middle-long term urban low-carbon transportationpolicy choice.