福建省能源消费与经济发展——基于VEC模型的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Energy Consumption and Economic Development Based on VEC Model

通过对福建省1978-2012年间能源消费与经济发展进行实证分析,经济发展水平通过GDP生产总值、第三产业产值、劳动力第二三产业就业比重和平均每人纯收入来综合度量。引用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,在变量一阶单整条件下构造反映福建省能源消费与经济发展长期均衡关系的协整方程,并且在考虑了短期变动因素情况下,构造了向量误差修正模型,即VEC模型。模型的结果显示出能源消费增加拉动了福建省经济发展水平的提升,能源消费每增加1%,经济发展水平就会提高0.34%,并且在短期,能源消费增长率在t时期对前一时期的调整力度为9%。

The paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between Fujian energy consumption and economic development from 1978 to 2012. This paper introduces Cobb- Douglas production function,establishes one equation which reflects the long-run equilibrium relationship of Fujian energy consumption and economic development,and then constructs vector error correction model（VEC）. The model shows that the increase of energy consumption can stimulate economic development. While energy consumption increases 1% ,economic level will rise 0. 34% . In the short run,the growth rate of energy consumption will increase 9% than the previous period.