基于行业异质性的中国工业碳排放影响因素分析

文章通过建立LMDI模型对我国工业碳排放变化进行机理分析。以此为基础,根据能源消费特征将工业行业分为能源密集型行业和非能源密集型行业,利用协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰检验,研究行业异质性对碳排放变化的长短期影响。研究表明:不同类型行业对碳排放的关键影响因子迥异,并且长期关系也表现出不一致性。两类行业与碳排放之间均存在长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制。通过短期调节,可以自动实现行业发展与碳排放的长期均衡,但调整力度和方向不尽相同。此外,文章为工业的发展提出了具有较强针对性的节能减排、低碳发展的措施。

This article attempts to use the decomposition model to analyze the factors that influence industrial carbon emissions. Then according to energy consumption characteristics, 32 industries are divided into energy- intensive industries and non -ener- gy- intensive industries. By using co- integration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger test, this paper mainly discusses the long- term and short- term effects of heterogeneity on carbon emissions. Studies show that different types of industries have different critical effects on carbon emissions and the long - term relationships also show inconsisten- cy. Two kinds of industries have a long- run equilibrium co- integration and short- term dynamic adjustment mechanism on carbon emissions. In addition, by short- term dynamic adjustments, we can realize the long- term balance between industry development and carbon emissions. Notably, the extent and direction of adjustment are different. In addition, the results provide pertinent measures for industries to implement energy conservation and formulate low - carbon development.