人民币汇率对中国经济增长的影响研究——基于开放拉姆齐模型的拓展

Analysis of the Effect of RMB's Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in China:Based on the Development of Open Ramsey Model

拉姆齐模型是研究一国宏观经济最经典的模型。运用跨时分析方法在新开放经济宏观经济学框架下研究人民币实际有效汇率对经济增长的影响,把实际有效汇率因素引入开放的拉姆齐模型分析框架,并运用该模型对人民币实际有效汇率对经济增长的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,人民币汇率与中国经济增长存在长期稳定关系,人均资本存量的增加降低了中国的经济增长率,技术进步率的上升以及货币投放量的增加均会提高中国的经济增长率。

Ramsey model is the most classic model studing a country ’ s macroeconomic.The innovation of this dissertation is the use of intertemporal equilibrium analysis to research the effect of RMB ’ s real exchange rate on economic growth in China during the open economy.And the paper introduces real exchange rate into Ramsey Model , and also gives some empirical analysis on the relationship between economic growth and the real exchange rate .The empirical results show that： first, RMB’ s real effective exchange rate and Chinese economic growth have a long-term stable relationship.Second , the increase in per capita capital stock has reduced the country ’ s economic growth rate.Third, the rise of technological progress rate and the increase of money supply will increase a country’ s economic growth rate.