新型农村社会养老保险对我国农民消费的影响——基于SEM的实证研究

The Research on the Impact of New Rural Social Pension Insurance on Farmers' Consumption in China:Empirical Study Based on SEM

2009年底开始试点的新型农村社会养老保险旨在为农民的老年生活提供保障,是我国社会保障领域的重要组成部分。运用结构方程模型探索新农保对消费的作用,得出新农保对农民消费有正负两方面影响的结论,并且认为在不同的经济发展阶段社会保障对消费有不同的作用。新农保增强了农民的安全感,促进了部分农民的消费,但其社会保障作用有待加强。从长期来看,加强社会保障体系的建设对增加农民消费会产生久远并且重要的影响。

New rural social pension insurance is one of the most important section of the social security field in China which started launching the pilot project in the end of 2009.This article explores effects of the new rural insurance on consumption by using SEM , which leads to the conclusion that there are two opposite effects , and it has different effects in different economic periods.The new rural pension insurance enhances farmers ’ sense of security and promotes their consumption , but its role in social protection needs to be strengthened.From the long term, the construction of the social security system will produce a long and significant impact on increasing farmers ’ consumption.